Back

Category

  • All
  • Boardrooms
  • BOARDROOMS
  • Independent Directors
  • Role of Board
  • Mindset Shifts of Boards
  • Independent Directors and Promoters
  • Sustainability / ESG
  • business implication
  • employee exits
  • COMMITTEE MEETINGS
  • Union Budget
  • Independent Director
  • Grow with Governance
  • Grow with Governance
  • INDEPENDENT DIRECTOR
  • Entrepreneurial Board
  • ESG & ITS IMPORTANCE
  • leadership coaching
  • Change Management
  • Advisory Boards
  • Boards
  • Boardroom
  • Brand Yourself as a Leader of the Company
  • Kindness
  • Are you hesitant to speak in the Boardroom!
  • Governance & ESG
  • Directors
  • Independent Directors
  • Corporate Governance
  • Leader development
  • Gratitude, Purpose
  • decision making
  • Systematic Investment Plans in Emotional Intelligence
  • Corporate Governance
  • The Board’s Role in ESG!
  • Balance Boards
  • Agility and Compassion
  • Governance and Board
  • Diversity and Inclusion
  • Directors,Promoter Directors
  • Board Members, Directors and Independent Directors
  • Board and Senior Management
  • New Directors
  • Cyber Insurance
  • Salary Increment
  • Economy Growth
  • Human Resources
  • Generating Wealth Beyond Money
  • Agile Mindset for Leadership
  • Aspiring Independent Directors
  • Board Leadership
  • Corporate Governance & Women on Boards
  • BOARD MEMBER
  • SME
  • WOMEN DIRECTOR
  • BOARD MEMBERS

Archive

  • 2021
    • April (3)
      • Will you drive your vehicle without a dashboard?
      • Are you making SIPs to improve your Emotional Intelligence
      • Corporate Governance needs a Moral Compass – Ethics in Indian Boardrooms!
    • August (9)
      • Grow with Governance: ESG is the umbrella for CSR, says Vedanta's Roma Balwani
      • Grow with Governance: PadUp Ventures' Rajat Jain Demystifies Correlation of Governance and Economic Growth
      • Grow with Governance: Family governance impacts the culture of a family-run business, says Equations Advisors' Mita Dixit
      • Entrepreneurial Board
      • NEW REGULATORY PROVISIONS RELATED TO INDEPENDENT DIRECTORS
      • ESG & ITS IMPORTANCE FROM THE POINT OF VIEW OF BOARD MEETING
      • Start early, don't wait till retirement to become an Independent Director, says Increate Value Advisors' Milind Sarwate
      • The winding road of leadership coaching in the post-pandemic era
      • Challenges of Organizational Culture Change
    • February (4)
      • Re-examination of Purpose by the Boards in Post -Pandemic Era
      • What Makes Great Boards Great! Performance Evaluation by Boards and Role of Independent Directors
      • Promoter Director – Time to become Custodian of Governance!
      • Diversity and Inclusion – The Board Perspective!
    • January (2)
      • New Directors - Have you done your due diligence
      • Cyber Security Insurance and Boards
    • July (7)
      • Why Advisory Boards Are Important for Indian Business Corporates?
      • Grow with Governance: ESG essential to repair the damage economic activities caused to the earth, says CA Shailesh Haribhakti
      • Top 10 areas to contribute in Boards as Independent Directors
      • Top 10 Questions to Ask in Boardrooms!
      • Essential HOWs of Boardroom!
      • Kindness is key
      • How to Brand Yourself as a Leader of the Company?
    • June (6)
      • Leading from the Boardroom
      • Are you hesitant to speak in the Boardroom!
      • The Neem Project a Leadership case study
      • Directors Liability in India
      • Why do promoters need Independent Directors?
      • Corporate Governance Deviation – Infosys Case Study
    • March (4)
      • Board Refreshment: Finding the Right Balance for your Board!
      • HR Governance and Board – How Important Is It?
      • Agility and Compassion: Two Pillars for Boards in the Post Pandemic Era!
      • Modernizing Governance: The Board’s Role in ESG!
    • May (3)
      • Restructuring appraisals in 2021 – Gratitude, Purpose & Meritocracy
      • How do you make your personal Brand?
      • Leadership Coaching: How does it help Leaders
    • October (2)
      • Are Independent Director’s required on the Board?
      • 'Ethics & Governance' lesson should start from school, says Federal Bank's Independent Director, Sankarshan Basu
    • September (3)
      • Grow with Governance: As an Independent Director ensure your voice is heard, says Apurva Purohit
      • Grow with Governance: Push for ESG agenda; pool CSR funds to maximise impact, says Ranganath NK, former MD of Grundfos Pumps
      • Grow with Governance: Boards should prepare companies for different risks, says National Insurance Academy's G Srinivasan
  • 2020
    • August (4)
      • WOMEN DIRECTOR-An Emerge
      • ARE YOUR BOARD MEMBERS SAVVY WITH FINANCIAL TERMS AND EXCEL IN FINANCIAL LITERACY QUOTIENT AS PER COMPANIES ACT 2013 MANDATES.
      • BOARD MEMBER SELECTION- A TASK OF PERFECTION
      • SME IPO – AN OPPORTUNITY TO CAPITALIZE YOUR BUSINESS
    • December (3)
      • Good or bad, Salary Increments always cause a heartburn among employees
      • Is Economic Progress Enough?
      • Emotional Intelligence
    • November (3)
      • Generating Wealth Beyond Money
      • "Agile Mindset for Leadership"
      • Tips for Aspiring Independent Directors
    • September (3)
      • Independent Director
      • Lean Thinking Boards
      • Corporate Governance & Women on Boards
  • 2022
    • August (1)
      • Liability of Independent Directors – An Important Aspect of Corporate Governance
    • February (4)
      • A Hero's Farewell: How to handle employee exits with dignity
      • Green Bonds: An Instrument for Financing a Sustainable Future
      • Tool for effectiveness of Board Committees - Ask Right Questions
      • Russia-Ukraine war and India’s Business Implication
    • July (2)
      • Stagnation or Evolution – Mindset Shifts of Boards when Company sees Stagnated Growth
      • Risk Assessment and Minimization Procedures – Role of Board
    • March (2)
      • A study on Sustainability Report of Container Shipping Companies.
      • India and The ESG impact of Crypto Currencies
    • May (1)
      • Independent Directors liability under GST
    • November (1)
      • Workplace Sexual Harassment and the Role of Board
    • October (2)
      • How many Boards are too many?
      • Women in Indian Boardrooms Vs Diversity = Inversely Proportionate
    • September (2)
      • Organizing for the Future – Important keys to becoming future ready
      • Are you ready to serve on the Board?
Back
Russia-Ukraine war and India’s Business Implication

Russia-Ukraine war and India’s Business Implication

By Robin Banerjee
Calendar

Feb 28 th 2022

Like1
0

The incursion ramifications could vary between negligible to extremely serious; depending upon the length of time the conflict will last. The international leadership is counting on sanctions from US and EU, which Russian politicians may have already factored in their thought processes.


The world is trying to put together various theories as to why this senseless invasion. And the most probable cause perhaps is Russian President Vladimir Putin's dream of enlarging his tentacles once again to the original Russian empire, by replacing the democratically elected Ukrainian government with his own cronies.


Unfortunately, the unwarranted Russian intimidation has shattered hopes of a strong global economic recovery from the disastrous pandemics, at least in the short term.


How could it affect the Indian economy?

Given the situation as of now, the following could be the major implications on us:

  • Oil price hike is one big fear. Brent crude is already at nearly $100 a barrel (up from $80 in early January 2022). Financial Times predicts oil price could be $120-$140 a barrel, if the conflict sustains through the year.
  • Inflation could be a big killer. With oil price rising and rupee weakening (leading to costlier imports), many commodity prices are expected to increase, including the transportation costs.
  • Weakening rupee is a distinct possibility. Though not sharp depreciation of rupee is expected. RBI has a good forex war chest (total reserves $630 billion), which they could play with to isolate sudden fluctuations. Good for exports; importers keep covering (about 50 percent of your exposure).
  • Cutting excise duty by the government on petrol and diesel to contain fuel led inflation, is a possibility. This may lead to government spending lesser on infrastructure to balance the receipts and expenditures, as the kitty cannot be expanded limitlessly, leading to lesser demand for steel, cement, etc.
  • Interest rates could rise to control rampant inflation. This will put further pressure on cost of production.
  • International logistics could get majorly affected. Sea and air routes could get uncertain and unsafe. If so, exports and imports will involve longer lead time. Stock outs of imported items (such as active pharmaceutical ingredients) cannot be ruled out.
  • Base metal prices could be increasing. Possibility of smelter shutdown in Europe, and implications of sanctions on Russia - a major metal producer, could lead to not only shortages but also spiking prices.
  • Consumer demand could shrink. Stock market is already down. Market sentiments could go negative due to horror stories which normally emerge during such periods. Which means, consumers spending less and saving more for possible dark days. Plus, we could hear China getting aggressive on its expansion ideas, which could add fuel to the fire of adverse sentiments.
  • Speculative pricing to yo-yo. Gold could rise (it's already up from $1800 in Jan'22 to $1900 now); however crypto currency is in dumps (Bitcoin down from $48,000 in early Jan'22 to $39,000 now). Surely, crypto is not a hedge against tough-times, as some quarters tried to proclaim.

What to do?

Now the natural question is, what do we do? I suggest the following:

  • India story is yet quite strong, with good company earnings announcement to continue. Hence, hold your breath and don't panic, even when you hear grisly stories on your TVs and through WhatsApp messages.
  • Do not take any significant long-term position on pricing, as the fluctuations could be large;
  • Assume the conflict will last between one and three months. Hence, it is unlikely to end soon (though hoping, it does not last beyond a fortnight);
  • Keep away from speculative positions. If investing in shares, please keep picking in small lots on dips and follow the SIP model;
  • Broach for inflationary pressures. Hence, savings is a good idea, and short term spending could be a bit deferred - though this is not good for the economy as a whole.
  • Avoid global travel if possible, as the international air spaces may not be as safe as it used to be even a few days back.
  • Last few words
  • How I wish I could be a forecaster - a crystal-ball gazer. That being only possible in a movie, we need to be careful. Do not forget that the ongoing global conflict is not too far from our doors. Plus, China could just get more ambitious and push their agenda, leading to conflicts on India's borders.
  • Prevention is better than cure, as they all say. Hence, keep your eyes and ears open, brace for some inflation and uncertain times, but India story looks yet to be rather intact not to give us sleepless nights.


Disclaimer: The views expressed are solely of the authors and MentorMyBoard does not necessarily subscribe to it. MentorMyBoard shall not be responsible for any damage caused to any person/ organization directly or indirectly.

Leave a Reply

Category

  • All
  • Boardrooms
  • BOARDROOMS
  • Independent Directors
  • Role of Board
  • Mindset Shifts of Boards
  • Independent Directors and Promoters
  • Sustainability / ESG
  • business implication
  • employee exits
  • COMMITTEE MEETINGS
  • Union Budget
  • Independent Director
  • Grow with Governance
  • Grow with Governance
  • INDEPENDENT DIRECTOR
  • Entrepreneurial Board
  • ESG & ITS IMPORTANCE
  • leadership coaching
  • Change Management
  • Advisory Boards
  • Boards
  • Boardroom
  • Brand Yourself as a Leader of the Company
  • Kindness
  • Are you hesitant to speak in the Boardroom!
  • Governance & ESG
  • Directors
  • Independent Directors
  • Corporate Governance
  • Leader development
  • Gratitude, Purpose
  • decision making
  • Systematic Investment Plans in Emotional Intelligence
  • Corporate Governance
  • The Board’s Role in ESG!
  • Balance Boards
  • Agility and Compassion
  • Governance and Board
  • Diversity and Inclusion
  • Directors,Promoter Directors
  • Board Members, Directors and Independent Directors
  • Board and Senior Management
  • New Directors
  • Cyber Insurance
  • Salary Increment
  • Economy Growth
  • Human Resources
  • Generating Wealth Beyond Money
  • Agile Mindset for Leadership
  • Aspiring Independent Directors
  • Board Leadership
  • Corporate Governance & Women on Boards
  • BOARD MEMBER
  • SME
  • WOMEN DIRECTOR
  • BOARD MEMBERS

Archive

  • 2021
    • April (3)
      • Will you drive your vehicle without a dashboard?
      • Are you making SIPs to improve your Emotional Intelligence
      • Corporate Governance needs a Moral Compass – Ethics in Indian Boardrooms!
    • August (9)
      • Grow with Governance: ESG is the umbrella for CSR, says Vedanta's Roma Balwani
      • Grow with Governance: PadUp Ventures' Rajat Jain Demystifies Correlation of Governance and Economic Growth
      • Grow with Governance: Family governance impacts the culture of a family-run business, says Equations Advisors' Mita Dixit
      • Entrepreneurial Board
      • NEW REGULATORY PROVISIONS RELATED TO INDEPENDENT DIRECTORS
      • ESG & ITS IMPORTANCE FROM THE POINT OF VIEW OF BOARD MEETING
      • Start early, don't wait till retirement to become an Independent Director, says Increate Value Advisors' Milind Sarwate
      • The winding road of leadership coaching in the post-pandemic era
      • Challenges of Organizational Culture Change
    • February (4)
      • Re-examination of Purpose by the Boards in Post -Pandemic Era
      • What Makes Great Boards Great! Performance Evaluation by Boards and Role of Independent Directors
      • Promoter Director – Time to become Custodian of Governance!
      • Diversity and Inclusion – The Board Perspective!
    • January (2)
      • New Directors - Have you done your due diligence
      • Cyber Security Insurance and Boards
    • July (7)
      • Why Advisory Boards Are Important for Indian Business Corporates?
      • Grow with Governance: ESG essential to repair the damage economic activities caused to the earth, says CA Shailesh Haribhakti
      • Top 10 areas to contribute in Boards as Independent Directors
      • Top 10 Questions to Ask in Boardrooms!
      • Essential HOWs of Boardroom!
      • Kindness is key
      • How to Brand Yourself as a Leader of the Company?
    • June (6)
      • Leading from the Boardroom
      • Are you hesitant to speak in the Boardroom!
      • The Neem Project a Leadership case study
      • Directors Liability in India
      • Why do promoters need Independent Directors?
      • Corporate Governance Deviation – Infosys Case Study
    • March (4)
      • Board Refreshment: Finding the Right Balance for your Board!
      • HR Governance and Board – How Important Is It?
      • Agility and Compassion: Two Pillars for Boards in the Post Pandemic Era!
      • Modernizing Governance: The Board’s Role in ESG!
    • May (3)
      • Restructuring appraisals in 2021 – Gratitude, Purpose & Meritocracy
      • How do you make your personal Brand?
      • Leadership Coaching: How does it help Leaders
    • October (2)
      • Are Independent Director’s required on the Board?
      • 'Ethics & Governance' lesson should start from school, says Federal Bank's Independent Director, Sankarshan Basu
    • September (3)
      • Grow with Governance: As an Independent Director ensure your voice is heard, says Apurva Purohit
      • Grow with Governance: Push for ESG agenda; pool CSR funds to maximise impact, says Ranganath NK, former MD of Grundfos Pumps
      • Grow with Governance: Boards should prepare companies for different risks, says National Insurance Academy's G Srinivasan
  • 2020
    • August (4)
      • WOMEN DIRECTOR-An Emerge
      • ARE YOUR BOARD MEMBERS SAVVY WITH FINANCIAL TERMS AND EXCEL IN FINANCIAL LITERACY QUOTIENT AS PER COMPANIES ACT 2013 MANDATES.
      • BOARD MEMBER SELECTION- A TASK OF PERFECTION
      • SME IPO – AN OPPORTUNITY TO CAPITALIZE YOUR BUSINESS
    • December (3)
      • Good or bad, Salary Increments always cause a heartburn among employees
      • Is Economic Progress Enough?
      • Emotional Intelligence
    • November (3)
      • Generating Wealth Beyond Money
      • "Agile Mindset for Leadership"
      • Tips for Aspiring Independent Directors
    • September (3)
      • Independent Director
      • Lean Thinking Boards
      • Corporate Governance & Women on Boards
  • 2022
    • August (1)
      • Liability of Independent Directors – An Important Aspect of Corporate Governance
    • February (4)
      • A Hero's Farewell: How to handle employee exits with dignity
      • Green Bonds: An Instrument for Financing a Sustainable Future
      • Tool for effectiveness of Board Committees - Ask Right Questions
      • Russia-Ukraine war and India’s Business Implication
    • July (2)
      • Stagnation or Evolution – Mindset Shifts of Boards when Company sees Stagnated Growth
      • Risk Assessment and Minimization Procedures – Role of Board
    • March (2)
      • A study on Sustainability Report of Container Shipping Companies.
      • India and The ESG impact of Crypto Currencies
    • May (1)
      • Independent Directors liability under GST
    • November (1)
      • Workplace Sexual Harassment and the Role of Board
    • October (2)
      • How many Boards are too many?
      • Women in Indian Boardrooms Vs Diversity = Inversely Proportionate
    • September (2)
      • Organizing for the Future – Important keys to becoming future ready
      • Are you ready to serve on the Board?